House District Cheshire 3
Monadnock · 1 seat · Keene Ward 5
Forecast
1.0 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 1 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+38.0 (90% range D+27.0 to D+49.1)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Philip Jones (incumbent) | D | 100% |
| Marissa Salisbury | R | 0% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +35.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+38.0 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.1 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+36.5 | D+2.8 | +33.7 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+26.6 | R+9.5 | +36.1 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+44.6 | D+9.3 | +35.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | D+23.1 | R+15.8 | +38.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+42.4 | D+7.4 | +35.1 | 0.15 |
Last House result not used as a lean (uncontested or lopsided).
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · uncontested
| D Philip Jones (i) | 2,014 | ✓ |
2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+40.0
| D Jones | 1,484 | ✓ |
| R Sickels | 636 |