House District Hillsborough 3

Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 3 seats · Nashua Ward 4

Forecast

3.0 expected Democratic seats of 3

Held today: 3 D, 0 R
On the ballot: 3 Democrats, 1 Republican for 3 seats
District party margin: D+21.2 (90% range D+10.3 to D+32.0)
Chance Democrats gain seats here: 0%
Chance Democrats lose seats here: 1%
Rating (seat share): Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Fred Davis (incumbent)	D	100%
Michael Joseph	D	100%
Suzanne Beaulieu	D	100%
John Menyhard	R	1%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+18.2
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+21.2

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Inputs

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+15.6	D+2.8	+12.7	0.4
2024 Governor	D+8.9	R+9.5	+18.4	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+28.5	D+9.3	+19.2	0.2
2022 Governor	D+6.2	R+15.8	+21.9	0.1
2020 President	D+28.7	D+7.4	+21.4	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+19.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.8) → lean +20.9, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+19.1

D Paige Beauchemin	1,597	✓
D Fred Davis (i)	1,419	✓
D Marc W. Plamondon	1,389	✓
R David M. Narkunas	1,050
R Joost J.G. Baumeister	943

2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+11.3

D Cote (i)	894	✓
D Laughton (i)	841	✓
D Davis	778	✓
R Baumeister	668