House District Belknap 6
Lakes Region · 4 seats · Gilford, Gilmanton, Laconia Ward 2
Forecast
0.5 expected Democratic seats of 4
- Held today
- 1 D, 2 R, 1 vacant
- On the ballot
- 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans for 4 seats
- District party margin
- R+10.9 (90% range R+21.7 to even)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 12%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 67%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Glen Aldrich (incumbent) | R | 94% |
| Colleen Harkey | R | 86% |
| Jade Wood | R | 86% |
| Priscilla Bean | R | 85% |
| David Nagel (incumbent) | D | 20% |
| Bob McLean | D | 10% |
| Allan Frank | D | 10% |
| Lisa Rivard | D | 10% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -13.8 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+10.9 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+9.8 | D+2.8 | -12.6 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+23.4 | R+9.5 | -13.9 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+6.4 | D+9.3 | -15.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+36.8 | R+15.8 | -21.0 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+8.1 | D+7.4 | -15.4 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+16.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.9) → lean -11.6, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 4 of 4 · party margin R+16.1
| R Harry H. Bean (i) | 4,997 | ✓ |
| R David Nagel (i) | 4,731 | ✓ |
| R Russell Dumais (i) | 4,673 | ✓ |
| R Glen Aldrich | 4,262 | ✓ |
| D Kurt Webber | 3,645 | |
| D Bob McLean | 3,642 | |
| D Lena Nirk | 3,382 | |
| D Jonathan D. Arsenault | 2,805 |
2022 — D 0, R 4 of 4 · party margin R+14.6
| R Bean (i) | 3,774 | ✓ |
| R Dumais | 3,762 | ✓ |
| R Nagel | 3,528 | ✓ |
| R Beaudoin | 3,196 | ✓ |
| D DiMartino | 3,179 | |
| D McLean | 2,877 | |
| D Hackett | 2,703 | |
| D Cracraft | 1,872 | |
| I Webber | 1,086 |