House District Hillsborough 28

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 2 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

R+20.7 (90% range R+31.6 to R+9.7)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

1%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Travis Corcoran (incumbent)	R	100%
Keith Erf (incumbent)	R	99%
David Erikson	D	1%
Benson Goodwin	D	0%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-23.6
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+20.7

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+22.1	D+2.8	-25.0	0.4
2024 Governor	R+32.0	R+9.5	-22.4	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+16.2	D+9.3	-25.6	0.2
2022 Governor	R+39.5	R+15.8	-23.8	0.1
2020 President	R+18.5	D+7.4	-25.8	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+24.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -21.0, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+24.9

R Keith Erf (i)	3,255	✓
R Travis Corcoran	3,004	✓
D David Erikson	1,961
D Luke Drake Jr.	1,804

2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+20.4

R Erf (i)	2,342	✓
R Cushman (i)	2,297	✓
D Politt	1,553
D Erikson	1,512