House District Hillsborough 17
Greater Manchester · 2 seats · Manchester Ward 2
Forecast
1.9 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 2 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 1 Republican for 2 seats
- District party margin
- D+12.5 (90% range D+1.6 to D+23.5)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 10%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Parr | D | 95% |
| Rob Fox | D | 95% |
| Ben Prescott | R | 10% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +9.7 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+12.6 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+15.2 | D+2.8 | +12.4 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+2.6 | R+9.5 | +12.1 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+20.7 | D+9.3 | +11.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+6.3 | R+15.8 | +9.5 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+19.4 | D+7.4 | +12.1 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+4.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +4.7, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+4.5
| D Linda DiSilvestro (i) | 2,733 | ✓ |
| D David J. Preece (i) | 2,368 | ✓ |
| R Ben Prescott | 2,330 |
2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+20.4
| D DiSilvestro (i) | 2,053 | ✓ |
| D Preece | 1,940 | ✓ |
| R Chase | 1,397 | |
| R Davis | 1,243 | |
| O Sarwark | 323 |