House District Carroll 1

Forecast

Held today

3 D, 0 R

On the ballot

3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats

District party margin

D+11.7 (90% range D+0.8 to D+22.6)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

20%

Rating (seat share)

Likely D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
David Paige (incumbent)	D	96%
Ellin Leonard	D	89%
Benjamin Colbath	D	89%
Gregory Corrigan	R	9%
Robert Nelson	R	8%
Karen Umberger	R	8%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+8.8
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+11.7

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+14.3	D+2.8	+11.5	0.4
2024 Governor	D+1.6	R+9.5	+11.2	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+20.8	D+9.3	+11.5	0.2
2022 Governor	R+8.2	R+15.8	+7.5	0.1
2020 President	D+17.4	D+7.4	+10.0	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+3.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +4.0, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+3.9

D Stephen L. Woodcock (i)	3,284	✓
D David Paige (i)	2,974	✓
D Tom Buco (i)	2,901	✓
R Karen C. Umberger	2,826

2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+12.9

D Woodcock (i)	2,375	✓
D Buco (i)	2,206	✓
D Paige	2,129	✓
R Umberger (i)	1,835
R DiGregorio	1,730
R McCarthy	1,614