House District Hillsborough 19
Greater Manchester · 2 seats · Manchester Ward 10
Forecast
1.1 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 1 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- D+1.9 (90% range R+9.0 to D+12.8)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 33%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 26%
- Rating (seat share)
- Toss-up
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Drew (incumbent) | R | 57% |
| Jane Beaulieu | D | 53% |
| Chrissy Simonds | D | 53% |
| Mickey Mullin | R | 37% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -1.0 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+2.0 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+2.9 | D+2.8 | +0.1 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+8.0 | R+9.5 | +1.6 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+12.5 | D+9.3 | +3.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+16.6 | R+15.8 | -0.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+10.6 | D+7.4 | +3.2 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+8.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -6.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin R+8.8
| R Matt Drew | 2,134 | ✓ |
| D Suzanne L. Chretien | 1,986 | ✓ |
| D Samuel Petali | 1,590 |
2022 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin R+27.4
| R Garthwaite | 2,542 | ✓ |
| D Hamer (i) | 1,471 | ✓ |
| D Beaulieu (i) | 1,425 |