House District Merrimack 10
Greater Manchester · 4 seats · Dunbarton, Hooksett
Forecast
0.6 expected Democratic seats of 4
- Held today
- 0 D, 4 R
- On the ballot
- 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans for 4 seats
- District party margin
- R+7.9 (90% range R+18.8 to D+3.1)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 38%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Boyd (incumbent) | R | 88% |
| Yury Polozov (incumbent) | R | 88% |
| Thomas Walsh (incumbent) | R | 88% |
| Pamela McMahon | R | 76% |
| Lucas Coriaty | D | 15% |
| William Lynch | D | 15% |
| Germano Martins | D | 15% |
| Ricky Gurung | D | 15% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -10.7 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+7.8 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+6.4 | D+2.8 | -9.2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+21.1 | R+9.5 | -11.6 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+3.2 | D+9.3 | -12.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+31.7 | R+15.8 | -15.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+5.5 | D+7.4 | -12.8 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+14.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -9.1, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 4 of 4 · party margin R+14.2
| R Thomas C. Walsh (i) | 5,723 | ✓ |
| R John A Leavitt (i) | 5,426 | ✓ |
| R Stephen E. Boyd (i) | 5,235 | ✓ |
| R Yury Polozov (i) | 4,894 | ✓ |
| D William P. Lynch | 4,254 | |
| D Robert A. Ray | 4,081 | |
| D Madalasa Gurung | 3,943 | |
| D Germano Martins | 3,702 |
2022 — D 0, R 4 of 4 · party margin R+11.9
| R Walsh (i) | 4,271 | ✓ |
| R Leavitt (i) | 4,267 | ✓ |
| R Boyd (i) | 3,961 | ✓ |
| R Polozov | 3,831 | ✓ |
| D Martins | 3,569 | |
| D Ray | 3,220 | |
| D Gurung | 3,089 | |
| D Tahoun | 2,971 |