House District Rockingham 10

Forecast

Held today

3 D, 0 R

On the ballot

3 Democrats, 0 Republicans for 3 seats — everyone on the ballot wins

District party margin

D+25.8 (90% range D+25.8 to D+25.8)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Michael Cahill (incumbent)	D	100%
Ellen Read (incumbent)	D	100%
Charlotte DiLorenzo	D	100%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+22.9
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+25.8

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+29.7	D+2.8	+26.8	0.4
2024 Governor	D+14.9	R+9.5	+24.4	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+33.9	D+9.3	+24.6	0.2
2022 Governor	D+7.9	R+15.8	+23.7	0.1
2020 President	D+31.4	D+7.4	+24.1	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+16.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.7) → lean +17.2, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+16.2

D Michael Cahill (i)	4,074	✓
D Ellen Read (i)	3,922	✓
D Toni Weinstein	3,795	✓
R Jeanene Cooper	2,833

2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+31.5

D Cahill (i)	3,449	✓
D Read	3,299	✓
D DiLorenzo (i)	3,288	✓
R Cooper	2,041
R Chamberland	1,657
R Sank	1,526