House District Rockingham 2

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 3 R

On the ballot

3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats

District party margin

R+18.5 (90% range R+29.5 to R+7.6)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

3%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
James Spillane (incumbent)	R	99%
Jason Osborne (incumbent)	R	99%
Will Huebner	R	98%
Robert Prieto	D	1%
Judith Lindsey	D	1%
Kendra Cohen	D	1%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-21.4
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+18.5

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+19.2	D+2.8	-22.0	0.4
2024 Governor	R+32.9	R+9.5	-23.3	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+13.9	D+9.3	-23.3	0.2
2022 Governor	R+39.8	R+15.8	-24.0	0.1
2020 President	R+17.8	D+7.4	-25.1	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+22.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -17.5, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+22.6

R Jason Osborne (i)	5,792	✓
R James Spillane (i)	5,435	✓
R Kevin Verville (i)	5,399	✓
D Kendra Cohen	3,594
D Judith Lindsey	3,569
D Nick Karakoudas	3,326

2022 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+19.2

R Osborne (i)	4,425	✓
R Verville (i)	4,251	✓
R Spillane (i)	4,193	✓
D Messier	3,064
D Wood	2,924
D Power	2,732