House District Hillsborough 39 (floterial)
Greater Manchester · 2 seats · Manchester Ward 6, Manchester Ward 8, Manchester Ward 9 · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.9 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R, 1 vacant
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+0.6 (90% range R+11.6 to D+10.3)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 67%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Toss-up
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jon DiPietro | R | 53% |
| William Infantine | R | 53% |
| Thomas Katsiantonis | D | 47% |
| Ellen Boudreau | D | 47% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -3.5 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+0.6 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+1.4 | D+2.8 | -4.2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+14.7 | R+9.5 | -5.1 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+6.9 | D+9.3 | -2.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+24.4 | R+15.8 | -8.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+4.3 | D+7.4 | -3.1 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+3.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.2) → lean -1.9, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+3.3
| R Mark Warden | 6,627 | ✓ |
| R Jonathan Morton | 6,438 | ✓ |
| D Maxine B. Mosley | 6,120 | |
| D Benjamin C. Baroody (i) | 6,117 |
2022 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin R+0.8
| R Berry (i) | 4,922 | ✓ |
| D Baroody (i) | 4,899 | ✓ |
| R McConville | 4,729 | |
| D Query (i) | 4,598 |