House District Hillsborough 5
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 3 seats · Nashua Ward 1
Forecast
2.9 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 3 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 1 Republican for 3 seats
- District party margin
- D+10.7 (90% range R+0.2 to D+21.7)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 10%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Susan Elberger (incumbent) | D | 97% |
| Dale Swanson (incumbent) | D | 97% |
| Heather Raymond (incumbent) | D | 97% |
| Paul Schibbelhute | R | 10% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +7.8 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+10.7 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+11.7 | D+2.8 | +8.9 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+7.4 | R+9.5 | +2.1 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+17.9 | D+9.3 | +8.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+8.5 | R+15.8 | +7.3 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+16.6 | D+7.4 | +9.2 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+7.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.7) → lean +8.0, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+7.0
| D Heather Raymond (i) | 2,964 | ✓ |
| D Susan A. Elberger (i) | 2,929 | ✓ |
| D Dale Swanson | 2,795 | ✓ |
| R Sean Rogers | 2,535 | |
| R Allison Dyer | 2,510 | |
| R Joseph Capriotti | 2,506 |
2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+8.8
| D Elberger | 4,838 | ✓ |
| D Raymond | 4,756 | ✓ |
| D Devine | 4,736 | ✓ |
| R Lanzara (i) | 4,230 | |
| R Ferreira | 3,933 | |
| R Dyer | 3,856 |