House District Grafton 8

Forecast

Held today

3 D, 0 R

On the ballot

3 Democrats, 1 Republican for 3 seats

District party margin

D+16.3 (90% range D+5.5 to D+27.2)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

2%

Rating (seat share)

Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Sallie Fellows (incumbent)	D	99%
Peter Lovett (incumbent)	D	99%
Bill Bolton (incumbent)	D	99%
George Kirk	R	2%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+13.4
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+16.3

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+15.9	D+2.8	+13.0	0.4
2024 Governor	D+7.3	R+9.5	+16.8	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+28.1	D+9.3	+18.8	0.2
2022 Governor	R+0.1	R+15.8	+15.6	0.1
2020 President	D+24.7	D+7.4	+17.4	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+8.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +8.1, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+8.0

D Sallie Fellows (i)	3,204	✓
D Peter Lovett (i)	3,165	✓
D Bill Bolton (i)	3,079	✓
R Timothy F. Sweetsir	2,685

2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+24.8

D Fellows (i)	2,525	✓
D Lovett	2,468	✓
D Bolton	2,421	✓
R Hughes	1,662
R McLaughlin	1,450
R Kirk	1,359