House District Rockingham 9

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 2 R

On the ballot

1 Democrat, 2 Republicans, 1 other for 2 seats

District party margin

R+23.1 (90% range R+34.0 to R+12.3)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

1%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Kevin Major	R	100%
Matthew Brooks	R	100%
Kevin Major	Republican Party, Democratic Party	0%
Kevin Major	D	0%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-26.1
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+23.1

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+25.0	D+2.8	-27.9	0.4
2024 Governor	R+35.5	R+9.5	-26.0	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+18.5	D+9.3	-27.8	0.2
2022 Governor	R+39.9	R+15.8	-24.2	0.1
2020 President	R+16.4	D+7.4	-23.8	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+27.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -24.8, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+27.4

R Donald Evan Selby	2,389	✓
R Vicki Wilson	2,376	✓
D Keith D. Cronyn	1,357
D Leslie Kruithof	1,357

2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+25.1

R True (i)	1,831	✓
R Piemonte (i)	1,666	✓
D Sharpe	1,103
D Cronyn	992