House District Hillsborough 4

Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 3 seats · Nashua Ward 2

Forecast

2.9 expected Democratic seats of 3

Held today: 3 D, 0 R
On the ballot: 3 Democrats, 1 Republican for 3 seats
District party margin: D+11.6 (90% range D+0.6 to D+22.6)
Chance Democrats gain seats here: 0%
Chance Democrats lose seats here: 12%
Rating (seat share): Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Linda Ryan (incumbent)	D	98%
Renae Lias	D	95%
Camille Pattison	D	95%
Shawn Martin	R	12%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+8.7
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+11.6

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Inputs

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+15.1	D+2.8	+12.3	0.4
2024 Governor	R+3.1	R+9.5	+6.5	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+22.2	D+9.3	+12.8	0.2
2022 Governor	R+6.1	R+15.8	+9.7	0.1
2020 President	D+19.7	D+7.4	+12.3	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+2.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +2.6, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+2.5

D Sue Newman (i)	2,857	✓
D Linda V. Ryan (i)	2,853	✓
D Ray Newman (i)	2,767	✓
R Michael McCarthy	2,690

2022 — D 2, R 1 of 3 · party margin D+34.4

D Newman (i)	4,482	✓
D Ryan	2,180	✓
R McCarthy	1,694	✓
R Smith (i)	1,621
R MacLean	1,559