House District Hillsborough 1
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 4 seats · Pelham
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seats of 4
- Held today
- 0 D, 3 R, 1 vacant
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 4 Republicans for 4 seats
- District party margin
- R+24.2 (90% range R+35.1 to R+13.3)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 1%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Mannion (incumbent) | R | 100% |
| Jeffrey Tenczar (incumbent) | R | 100% |
| Deborah Kruzel | R | 100% |
| Diane Rogers | R | 100% |
| Lisa Brown | D | 0% |
| Debbie Ryan | D | 0% |
| Noah Lamoureaux | D | 0% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -27.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+24.2 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+25.4 | D+2.8 | -28.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+36.8 | R+9.5 | -27.3 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+19.7 | D+9.3 | -29.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+42.6 | R+15.8 | -26.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+20.3 | D+7.4 | -27.7 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+29.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.9) → lean -24.8, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 4 of 4 · party margin R+29.3
| R Jeffrey Tenczar (i) | 5,308 | ✓ |
| R Sandra Panek (i) | 5,250 | ✓ |
| R Tim Mannion (i) | 5,157 | ✓ |
| R Tom Mannion (i) | 5,052 | ✓ |
| D Lisa Brown | 3,059 | |
| D B.J. Murphy | 2,814 | |
| D Ann Balcom-Dadak | 2,772 | |
| D Paul L. Dadak | 2,701 |
2022 — D 0, R 4 of 4 · party margin R+25.0
| R Abare | 4,240 | ✓ |
| R Mannion | 3,610 | ✓ |
| R Panek | 3,540 | ✓ |
| R Tenczar | 3,533 | ✓ |
| D Hennessey | 2,339 | |
| D Lynde | 2,294 | |
| D Chapman | 2,171 | |
| D Dadak | 2,157 |