House District Strafford 9
Seacoast and Strafford · 1 seat · Rochester Ward 6
Forecast
0.8 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+5.7 (90% range R+5.2 to D+16.7)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 76%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Nevin Dexter | D | 76% |
| Robert Qua | R | 24% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +2.8 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+5.7 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+2.3 | D+2.8 | -0.5 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+4.1 | R+9.5 | +5.4 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+8.6 | D+9.3 | -0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+14.9 | R+15.8 | +0.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+4.4 | D+7.4 | -3.0 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+3.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean +9.0, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+3.8
| D Amy Malone | 1,234 | ✓ |
| R Brandon Phinney (i) | 1,143 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+0.9
| R Phinney | 1,774 | ✓ |
| D Dexter | 1,743 |