House District Belknap 5
Lakes Region · 4 seats · Laconia Ward 1, Laconia Ward 3, Laconia Ward 4, Laconia Ward 5, Laconia Ward 6
Forecast
0.7 expected Democratic seats of 4
- Held today
- 0 D, 3 R, 1 vacant
- On the ballot
- 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans for 4 seats
- District party margin
- R+7.7 (90% range R+18.6 to D+3.3)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 45%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Bordes (incumbent) | R | 90% |
| Timothy Minor | R | 79% |
| Paul Rossi | R | 79% |
| Cody Pfaff | R | 78% |
| Eric Hoffman | D | 19% |
| Denise Riley | D | 18% |
| Lois Kessin | D | 18% |
| Marcia Hayward | D | 18% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -10.6 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+7.7 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+9.1 | D+2.8 | -12.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+19.4 | R+9.5 | -9.9 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+5.3 | D+9.3 | -14.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+36.5 | R+15.8 | -20.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+5.6 | D+7.4 | -13.0 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+7.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+0.6) → lean -4.6, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 3 of 4 · party margin R+7.9
| R Mike Bordes (i) | 4,040 | ✓ |
| R Sheri Minor | 3,852 | ✓ |
| R Steven T. Bogert (i) | 3,703 | ✓ |
| D Charlie St. Clair (i) | 3,641 | ✓ |
| R Richard Littlefield | 3,464 | |
| D Jon Hildreth | 3,224 | |
| D Wendy Chase | 3,075 | |
| D Erika Gray | 2,919 |
2022 — D 2, R 2 of 4 · party margin R+0.8
| R Bordes (i) | 3,099 | ✓ |
| D St. Clair | 2,893 | ✓ |
| D Huot | 2,762 | ✓ |
| R Bogert | 2,714 | ✓ |
| R Littlefield (i) | 2,676 | |
| D Wood | 2,633 | |
| D Hoffman | 2,494 | |
| R Johnson (i) | 2,478 |