House District Rockingham 17
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 4 seats · Windham
Forecast
0.1 expected Democratic seats of 4
- Held today
- 0 D, 4 R
- On the ballot
- 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans for 4 seats
- District party margin
- R+14.4 (90% range R+25.4 to R+3.5)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 10%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Robert J. Lynn (incumbent) | R | 97% |
| Charles McMahon (incumbent) | R | 97% |
| Daniel Popovici-Muller (incumbent) | R | 97% |
| Katelyn Kuttab (incumbent) | R | 97% |
| Darryn Elliot Remillard | D | 3% |
| Irene Harnden | D | 3% |
| Matthew Swoboda | D | 3% |
| David Martsolf | D | 3% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -17.3 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+14.4 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+11.9 | D+2.8 | -14.7 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+29.6 | R+9.5 | -20.1 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+7.6 | D+9.3 | -16.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+39.1 | R+15.8 | -23.3 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+6.4 | D+7.4 | -13.8 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+23.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -18.6, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 4 of 4 · party margin R+23.8
| R Charles E. McMahon (i) | 5,445 | ✓ |
| R Katelyn Kuttab (i) | 5,370 | ✓ |
| R Daniel Popovici-Muller (i) | 5,236 | ✓ |
| R Bob Lynn (i) | 5,225 | ✓ |
| D David Martsolf | 3,501 | |
| D Marie Yanish | 3,373 | |
| D Michael Caruso | 3,306 | |
| D Edward Schoen | 2,924 |
2022 — D 0, R 4 of 4 · party margin R+22.5
| R McMahon (i) | 3,882 | ✓ |
| R Lynn (i) | 3,700 | ✓ |
| R Kuttab | 3,654 | ✓ |
| R Popovici-Muller | 3,591 | ✓ |
| D St. Laurent | 3,198 | |
| D Roman | 2,492 | |
| D Yanish | 1,881 | |
| D Singureanu | 1,811 | |
| I Carpenter | 1,563 | |
| I Rounds | 1,098 |