House District Coos 5
North Country · 2 seats · Berlin
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 0 Democrats, 2 Republicans, 1 other for 2 seats — everyone on the ballot wins
- District party margin
- R+1.5 (90% range R+12.4 to D+9.4)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Peter Morency (incumbent) | R | 98% |
| Mark Evans | R | 94% |
| Cassie Mason | Independent | 8% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -4.3 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+1.4 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+3.9 | D+2.8 | -6.7 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+9.5 | R+9.5 | +0.0 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+8.9 | D+9.3 | -0.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+18.7 | R+15.8 | -3.0 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+7.4 | D+7.4 | +0.0 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+8.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.2) → lean -7.3, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+8.7
| R Brian L. Valerino | 2,032 | ✓ |
| R Peter Morency | 1,932 | ✓ |
| D Corinne Cascadden (i) | 1,768 | |
| D Henry W. Noel | 1,561 |
2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+9.8
| D Cascadden | 3,034 | ✓ |
| D Noel | 2,828 | ✓ |
| R Korzen | 2,716 | |
| R Hale | 2,096 |