House District Carroll 6

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 2 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

R+4.7 (90% range R+15.5 to D+6.2)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

41%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Lean R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
John MacDonald (incumbent)	R	82%
Tim Bauman	R	67%
Phoebe VanScoy-Giessler	D	25%
Deirdre McEachern	D	25%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-7.6
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+4.7

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+2.5	D+2.8	-5.3	0.4
2024 Governor	R+17.7	R+9.5	-8.1	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+2.9	D+9.3	-12.3	0.2
2022 Governor	R+27.0	R+15.8	-11.2	0.1
2020 President	R+2.3	D+7.4	-9.7	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+11.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -5.8, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+11.0

R John T. MacDonald (i)	3,332	✓
R Katy Peternel (i)	3,134	✓
D Kayla Hewitt	2,862
D Karen Burnett-Kurie	2,327

2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+12.1

R Peternel	2,821	✓
R MacDonald (i)	2,781	✓
D Duran	2,314
D Millner	2,081