House District Hillsborough 41 (floterial)
Greater Manchester · 3 seats · Manchester Ward 2, Manchester Ward 4, Manchester Ward 5, Manchester Ward 7 · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
2.8 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 2 D, 0 R, 1 vacant
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats
- District party margin
- D+13.1 (90% range D+2.3 to D+23.9)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 85%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 3%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Lily M. Foss (incumbent) | D | 97% |
| Tom Stewart | D | 92% |
| Bishwa Bahadur Shah | D | 92% |
| Ryan Hebert | R | 6% |
| Jason Hodgdon | R | 6% |
| Joseph Skinner | R | 6% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +10.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+13.1 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+9.9 | D+2.8 | +7.1 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+1.1 | R+9.5 | +10.7 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+19.4 | D+9.3 | +10.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+7.2 | R+15.8 | +8.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+17.5 | D+7.4 | +10.2 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+10.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean +13.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+10.6
| D Lily M. Foss | 7,085 | ✓ |
| D Tim Hartnett | 6,642 | ✓ |
| D Karen Hegner | 6,249 | ✓ |
| R Ryan Hebert | 5,819 | |
| R Melodye LaChance Smith | 5,184 | |
| R Lee Xavier Davis | 5,154 |
2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+15.1
| D Bradley (i) | 5,217 | ✓ |
| D Heath (i) | 5,179 | ✓ |
| D Chretien (i) | 4,979 | ✓ |
| R Levasseur | 4,098 | |
| R Lachance | 3,761 | |
| R Mathieu | 3,493 |