House District Strafford 8
Seacoast and Strafford · 1 seat · Rochester Ward 4
Forecast
0.3 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 1 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+2.6 (90% range R+13.5 to D+8.3)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 73%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| David Walker (incumbent) | R | 73% |
| Ty Wyman | D | 27% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -5.5 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+2.6 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+3.2 | D+2.8 | -6.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+7.7 | R+9.5 | +1.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+5.8 | D+9.3 | -3.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+20.6 | R+15.8 | -4.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+4.7 | D+7.4 | -2.7 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+9.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean -9.6, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+9.7
| R Samuel Farrington | 1,498 | ✓ |
| D Chuck Grassie (i) | 1,232 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin even
| R Walker | 1,941 | ✓ |
| D Grassie (i) | 1,940 |