House District Hillsborough 8
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 3 seats · Nashua Ward 6
Forecast
2.8 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 2 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 1 Republican for 3 seats
- District party margin
- D+8.1 (90% range R+2.9 to D+19.0)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 79%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Efstathia Booras (incumbent) | D | 96% |
| Christal Lloyd (incumbent) | D | 96% |
| Fran Nutter-Upham | D | 88% |
| Travis Tripodi | R | 21% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +5.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+8.0 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+10.3 | D+2.8 | +7.4 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+1.8 | R+9.5 | +7.7 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+18.0 | D+9.3 | +8.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+6.1 | R+15.8 | +9.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+21.5 | D+7.4 | +14.1 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+3.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean -3.7, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 2, R 1 of 3 · party margin R+3.9
| R Kevin Scully | 2,082 | ✓ |
| D Christal Lloyd (i) | 2,047 | ✓ |
| D Efstathia Booras (i) | 1,935 | ✓ |
| D Frances E. Nutter-Upham (i) | 1,798 |
2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+11.4
| D Lloyd | 1,411 | ✓ |
| D Booras (i) | 1,409 | ✓ |
| D Nutter-Upham (i) | 1,348 | ✓ |
| R Scully | 1,204 | |
| R Thibodeau | 1,103 | |
| R Decatur | 1,009 |