House District Rockingham 15

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 2 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

R+17.2 (90% range R+28.2 to R+6.3)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

2%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Lilli Walsh (incumbent)	R	99%
Joe Guthrie (incumbent)	R	99%
Lisa DeMio	D	1%
Laurie Warnock	D	1%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-20.1
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+17.2

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+19.0	D+2.8	-21.8	0.4
2024 Governor	R+29.1	R+9.5	-19.6	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+13.7	D+9.3	-23.0	0.2
2022 Governor	R+39.4	R+15.8	-23.7	0.1
2020 President	R+14.0	D+7.4	-21.3	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+21.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -16.0, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+21.1

R Joe Guthrie (i)	3,292	✓
R Lilli Walsh (i)	3,101	✓
D Laurie A. Warnock	2,234
D Lisa DeMio	1,927

2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+20.1

R Guthrie (i)	2,604	✓
R Walsh	2,422	✓
D Warnock	1,797
D DeMio	1,546