House District Carroll 2

Forecast

Held today

2 D, 0 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

D+21.5 (90% range D+10.6 to D+32.4)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

1%

Rating (seat share)

Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Anita Burroughs (incumbent)	D	100%
Adam Heard	D	99%
Erlon Jones	R	1%
Jennifer LePla	R	1%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+18.6
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+21.5

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+24.4	D+2.8	+21.6	0.4
2024 Governor	D+12.0	R+9.5	+21.6	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+29.4	D+9.3	+20.0	0.2
2022 Governor	D+1.5	R+15.8	+17.2	0.1
2020 President	D+25.5	D+7.4	+18.1	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+14.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +14.5, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+14.3

D Anita Burroughs (i)	2,832	✓
D Chris McAleer (i)	2,635	✓
R Maureen Blanchard	2,048

2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+19.3

D Burroughs (i)	2,417	✓
D McAleer (i)	2,232	✓
R Chandler	1,827
R Bacon	1,319