House District Hillsborough 29
Greater Manchester · 4 seats · Goffstown
Forecast
1.3 expected Democratic seats of 4
- Held today
- 0 D, 3 R, 1 vacant
- On the ballot
- 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans for 4 seats
- District party margin
- R+2.6 (90% range R+13.5 to D+8.3)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 65%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Alexander Jr. (incumbent) | R | 73% |
| Henry Giasson (incumbent) | R | 73% |
| Sherri Reinfurt (incumbent) | R | 73% |
| Shanun Carey | R | 55% |
| Judi Lanza | D | 32% |
| Christopher Calhoun | D | 31% |
| Karyn Battey | D | 31% |
| Marie B. Morgan | D | 31% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -5.5 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+2.6 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+3.0 | D+2.8 | -5.8 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+17.1 | R+9.5 | -7.6 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+2.4 | D+9.3 | -6.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+27.2 | R+15.8 | -11.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+0.7 | D+7.4 | -8.1 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+4.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+0.6) → lean -1.6, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 4 of 4 · party margin R+4.8
| R Joe Alexander (i) | 5,027 | ✓ |
| R Sheila Seidel (i) | 4,876 | ✓ |
| R Sherri Reinfurt | 4,652 | ✓ |
| R Henry R. Giasson III | 4,566 | ✓ |
| D Jim Craig | 4,484 | |
| D Judi L. Lanza (i) | 4,385 | |
| D Judy Johnson | 4,323 | |
| D Melanie Renfrew-Hebert | 4,170 |
2022 — D 1, R 3 of 4 · party margin R+3.6
| R Alexander (i) | 7,180 | ✓ |
| R Plett (i) | 7,067 | ✓ |
| R Seidel | 7,025 | ✓ |
| D Lanza | 6,886 | ✓ |
| R Pounds | 6,871 | |
| D McCarthy | 6,715 | |
| D Renfrew-Hebert | 6,548 | |
| D DeVetter | 6,019 |