House District Grafton 12

Forecast

Held today

4 D, 0 R

On the ballot

4 Democrats, 0 Republicans for 4 seats — everyone on the ballot wins

District party margin

D+71.2 (90% range D+71.2 to D+71.2)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Mary Hakken-Phillips (incumbent)	D	100%
Russell Muirhead (incumbent)	D	100%
Ellen Rockmore (incumbent)	D	100%
Terry Spahr (incumbent)	D	100%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+68.2
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+71.2

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.1 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+71.7	D+2.8	+68.9	0.4
2024 Governor	D+60.9	R+9.5	+70.4	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+74.4	D+9.3	+65.0	0.2
2022 Governor	D+54.4	R+15.8	+70.2	0.1
2020 President	D+74.6	D+7.4	+67.2	0.15

Last House result not used as a lean (uncontested or lopsided).

Past results in this district

2024 — D 4, R 0 of 4 · uncontested

D Russell Muirhead (i)	6,351	✓
D Mary Hakken-Phillips (i)	6,315	✓
D Ellen Rockmore	6,305	✓
D Terry Spahr	6,174	✓

2022 — D 4, R 0 of 4 · uncontested

D Muirhead (i)	5,386	✓
D Murphy (i)	5,365	✓
D Hakken-Phillips (i)	5,322	✓
D Nordgren (i)	5,312	✓