House District Strafford 21 (floterial)
Seacoast and Strafford · 3 seats · Dover Ward 1, Dover Ward 2, Dover Ward 3, Dover Ward 5, Dover Ward 6 · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
3.0 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 3 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 1 Republican for 3 seats
- District party margin
- D+31.5 (90% range D+20.6 to D+42.3)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Miller (incumbent) | D | 100% |
| Geoff Smith (incumbent) | D | 100% |
| Alice Wade (incumbent) | D | 100% |
| Joseph Morganella | R | 0% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +28.6 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+31.5 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+31.7 | D+2.8 | +28.8 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+18.6 | R+9.5 | +28.1 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+39.1 | D+9.3 | +29.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | D+12.2 | R+15.8 | +27.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+33.7 | D+7.4 | +26.3 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+28.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.7) → lean +29.1, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+28.1
| D Luz Bay (i) | 9,261 | ✓ |
| D Seth Miller | 8,809 | ✓ |
| D Geoffrey Smith (i) | 8,417 | ✓ |
| R Renee L. Blaisdell | 5,173 | |
| R Gary Fratus | 4,860 | |
| R John V. Caggiano | 4,836 |
2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+33.4
| D Bay | 7,674 | ✓ |
| D Treleaven (i) | 7,241 | ✓ |
| D Smith (i) | 6,976 | ✓ |
| R Hastings | 3,753 | |
| R Castaldo | 3,642 | |
| R Caggiano | 3,526 |