House District Grafton 6
Upper Valley · 1 seat · Orford, Rumney, Wentworth
Forecast
0.3 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+3.0 (90% range R+14.0 to D+7.9)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 25%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Linda Franz (incumbent) | R | 75% |
| Paul Goundrey | D | 25% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -6.0 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+3.1 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+4.7 | D+2.8 | -7.5 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+13.4 | R+9.5 | -3.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+2.8 | D+9.3 | -6.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+19.5 | R+15.8 | -3.7 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+4.7 | D+7.4 | -2.7 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+9.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -6.7, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+9.4
| R Linda Franz | 1,326 | ✓ |
| D Jolene T. Farmer | 1,099 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+4.2
| R Greeson (i) | 1,006 | ✓ |
| D Tomlinson | 924 |