House District Hillsborough 13
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 6 seats · Hudson
Forecast
0.5 expected Democratic seats of 6
- Held today
- 0 D, 6 R
- On the ballot
- 5 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 1 other for 6 seats
- District party margin
- R+10.6 (90% range R+21.6 to D+0.2)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 29%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Prout (incumbent) | R | 94% |
| Dillon Dumont (incumbent) | R | 94% |
| Cathy Kenny (incumbent) | R | 94% |
| Robert Wherry (incumbent) | R | 93% |
| Jordan Ulery (incumbent) | R | 93% |
| Tom Trost | R | 85% |
| James Battis | D | 10% |
| Jim Caron | D | 9% |
| Luan Baci | D | 9% |
| Kate Messner | D | 9% |
| Don Staveley | D | 9% |
| Mark DelSesto | Independent | 0% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -13.5 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+10.6 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 6 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+11.0 | D+2.8 | -13.8 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+25.1 | R+9.5 | -15.6 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+7.5 | D+9.3 | -16.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+32.5 | R+15.8 | -16.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+7.7 | D+7.4 | -15.1 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+14.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.7) → lean -9.7, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 6 of 6 · party margin R+14.0
| R Cathy Kenny (i) | 7,718 | ✓ |
| R Dillon Dumont | 7,519 | ✓ |
| R Andrew Prout (i) | 7,002 | ✓ |
| R Jordan G. Ulery (i) | 6,996 | ✓ |
| R Robert Wherry (i) | 6,573 | ✓ |
| R Jeremy Slottje | 6,345 | ✓ |
| D John Knowles | 5,405 | |
| D Ryan Burke | 5,387 | |
| D Timothy Wyatt | 5,363 | |
| D Alejandro Urrutia | 5,033 |
2022 — D 0, R 6 of 6 · party margin R+13.0
| R Kennedy | 5,474 | ✓ |
| R Kenny | 5,454 | ✓ |
| R Ulery (i) | 5,293 | ✓ |
| R Renzullo (i) | 5,170 | ✓ |
| R Prout (i) | 5,161 | ✓ |
| R Wherry | 4,882 | ✓ |
| D Knowles | 4,135 | |
| D Katsos | 4,068 | |
| D Blue | 4,052 | |
| D Urrutia | 3,894 |