House District Carroll 4
Lakes Region · 2 seats · Brookfield, Eaton, Effingham, Freedom, Wakefield
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+16.2 (90% range R+27.3 to R+5.4)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 2%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Belcher (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| Lino Avellani (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| Annie Gehring | D | 2% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -19.2 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+16.3 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+21.0 | D+2.8 | -23.8 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+30.0 | R+9.5 | -20.4 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+16.1 | D+9.3 | -25.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+39.0 | R+15.8 | -23.2 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+15.0 | D+7.4 | -22.3 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+14.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -9.5, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+14.7
| R Lino M. Avellani (i) | 3,600 | ✓ |
| R Mike Belcher (i) | 3,232 | ✓ |
| D Donna V. Ackerman | 2,542 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+21.7
| R Avellani (i) | 2,771 | ✓ |
| R Belcher | 2,636 | ✓ |
| D Ogren | 1,801 | |
| D Gehring | 1,679 |