Senate District 21
Seacoast and Strafford · currently held by D (Rebecca Perkins Kwoka, running)
Forecast
100%
chance Rebecca Perkins Kwoka (D) wins
- Democrat
- Rebecca Perkins Kwoka
- Republican
- Jeffrey Berlin
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+40.2 (90% range D+28.0 to D+52.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +34.9 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+37.8 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -0.6 |
| Final expected margin | D+40.2 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+38.0 | D+2.8 | +35.2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+24.7 | R+9.5 | +34.3 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+45.3 | D+9.3 | +36.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | D+21.3 | R+15.8 | +37.0 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+42.8 | D+7.4 | +35.4 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): D+34.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-3.0) → lean +33.7, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin D+34.1
| D Rebecca Perkins Kwoka (i) | 22,700 | ✓ |
| R Don Cardinale | 11,155 |
2022 — uncontested
| D Rebecca Perkins Kwoka (i) | 20,084 | ✓ |