House District Rockingham 30
Seacoast and Strafford · 2 seats · Seabrook
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+20.5 (90% range R+31.5 to R+9.6)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 1%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Aboul Khan (incumbent) | R | 100% |
| Jason Janvrin | R | 99% |
| Diana Labrecque Chapman | D | 1% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -23.4 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+20.5 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+22.7 | D+2.8 | -25.5 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+31.3 | R+9.5 | -21.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+16.7 | D+9.3 | -26.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+36.7 | R+15.8 | -20.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+13.6 | D+7.4 | -21.0 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+26.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -22.1, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+26.0
| R Aboul B. Khan (i) | 2,947 | ✓ |
| R Matt Sabourin | 2,563 | ✓ |
| D Bob Albright | 1,733 | |
| D Justin G. Packard | 1,503 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+26.8
| R Khan (i) | 2,069 | ✓ |
| R Harley (i) | 1,822 | ✓ |
| D Albright | 1,165 | |
| D Daly | 1,080 |