House District Grafton 2
North Country · 1 seat · Bethlehem, Franconia
Forecast
1.0 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 1 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 0 Republicans for 1 seat — everyone on the ballot wins
- District party margin
- D+28.1 (90% range D+28.1 to D+28.1)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Sullivan (incumbent) | D | 100% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +25.2 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+28.1 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+27.1 | D+2.8 | +24.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+15.7 | R+9.5 | +25.2 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+31.5 | D+9.3 | +22.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | D+9.9 | R+15.8 | +25.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+28.6 | D+7.4 | +21.2 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+28.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +28.7, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+28.6
| D Jared Sullivan (i) | 1,529 | ✓ |
| R Eddie Qi | 849 |
2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+29.2
| D Sullivan | 1,319 | ✓ |
| R Qi | 723 |