House District Grafton 7
Upper Valley · 1 seat · Campton
Forecast
0.8 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 1 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+4.5 (90% range R+6.4 to D+15.3)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 20%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Janet Marie Lucas (incumbent) | D | 80% |
| Jon Gablinske | R | 20% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +1.7 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+4.6 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+2.5 | D+2.8 | -0.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+6.2 | R+9.5 | +3.3 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+10.2 | D+9.3 | +0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+14.8 | R+15.8 | +0.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+7.5 | D+7.4 | +0.1 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+1.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean +4.0, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+1.3
| D Janet Marie Lucas | 1,056 | ✓ |
| R Jon A. Gablinske | 1,028 |
2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+1.1
| D Hoyt | 1,714 | ✓ |
| R Alliegro (i) | 1,677 |