House District Grafton 10
Upper Valley · 1 seat · Bridgewater, Bristol
Forecast
0.2 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+6.5 (90% range R+17.4 to D+4.3)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 21%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Coffill | R | 79% |
| Marc Bourassa | D | 21% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -9.4 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+6.5 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+5.7 | D+2.8 | -8.5 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+17.3 | R+9.5 | -7.7 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+4.8 | D+9.3 | -14.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+30.0 | R+15.8 | -14.2 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+9.7 | D+7.4 | -17.1 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+7.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -4.8, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+7.4
| R John Sellers | 1,490 | ✓ |
| D Richard A. Lobban Jr. | 1,284 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+18.5
| R Brown | 1,255 | ✓ |
| D Largmann | 863 |