House District Sullivan 6

Forecast

Held today

1 D, 2 R

On the ballot

3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats

District party margin

D+0.5 (90% range R+10.4 to D+11.3)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

48%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

21%

Rating (seat share)

Toss-up

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
John Cloutier (incumbent)	D	62%
Dale Girard (incumbent)	R	58%
Wayne Hemingway (incumbent)	R	58%
Chris Cogswell	D	42%
Lisa Gosselin	D	42%
Emily Sandblade	R	38%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-2.3
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+0.6

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+6.1	D+2.8	-8.9	0.4
2024 Governor	R+12.5	R+9.5	-3.0	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+3.1	D+9.3	-6.2	0.2
2022 Governor	R+20.3	R+15.8	-4.6	0.1
2020 President	R+0.6	D+7.4	-8.0	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+7.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.7) → lean +8.4, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 2, R 1 of 3 · party margin D+7.4

D Dale Girard	2,895	✓
D John R. Cloutier (i)	2,804	✓
R Wayne J. Hemingway	2,783	✓
D Gary Merchant (i)	2,639
R Robert W. Merrill Jr.	2,257
R Emily Sandblade	2,149
I Sean F. McCarthy	626

2022 — D 2, R 1 of 3 · party margin D+3.3

D Cloutier (i)	2,240	✓
D Merchant (i)	2,108	✓
R Stapleton (i)	2,081	✓
D O'Hearne (i)	2,032
R McCarthy	1,954
R Herrell	1,939