House District Hillsborough 26
Greater Manchester · 2 seats · Manchester Ward 7
Forecast
1.5 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 1 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- D+6.2 (90% range R+4.7 to D+17.1)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 59%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 9%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Long (incumbent) | D | 83% |
| Mary Freitas | D | 67% |
| Brian Cole (incumbent) | R | 32% |
| Henry Emele | R | 17% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +3.3 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+6.2 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+6.0 | D+2.8 | +3.2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+3.1 | R+9.5 | +6.4 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+16.2 | D+9.3 | +6.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+9.4 | R+15.8 | +6.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+12.7 | D+7.4 | +5.4 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+6.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -0.9, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin R+6.0
| R Brian D. Cole (i) | 1,882 | ✓ |
| D Patrick N. Long | 1,843 | ✓ |
| D Michael Reuschel | 1,492 |
2022 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin D+3.6
| D Freitas (i) | 1,408 | ✓ |
| R Cole | 1,159 | ✓ |
| D Forsing | 1,085 |