House District Hillsborough 38 (floterial)
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 2 seats · Hudson, Litchfield · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.2 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+11.9 (90% range R+22.8 to R+1.0)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 15%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Ted Trost | R | 91% |
| Adam Haverstock | R | 91% |
| Heidi Jakoby | D | 9% |
| Mahendra Bakshi | D | 9% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -14.8 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+11.9 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+10.9 | D+2.8 | -13.8 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+25.5 | R+9.5 | -16.0 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+6.9 | D+9.3 | -16.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+32.8 | R+15.8 | -17.1 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+7.3 | D+7.4 | -14.7 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+16.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -14.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+16.9
| R Kim Rice | 11,070 | ✓ |
| R Ralph G. Boehm | 9,997 | ✓ |
| D Luan Baci | 7,491 |
2022 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin R+45.9
| R Lekas (i) | 15,047 | ✓ |
| D Koutroubas | 5,678 | ✓ |
| D Wyatt | 5,480 |