House District Belknap 4
Lakes Region · 1 seat · Belmont
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+23.8 (90% range R+34.9 to R+12.8)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Nugent Jr. | R | 100% |
| Liz Charlwood | D | 0% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -26.7 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+23.8 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.1 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+23.3 | D+2.8 | -26.1 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+33.2 | R+9.5 | -23.7 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+18.7 | D+9.3 | -28.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+47.2 | R+15.8 | -31.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+19.0 | D+7.4 | -26.4 | 0.15 |
Last House result not used as a lean (uncontested or lopsided).
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · uncontested
| R Travis Toner | 3,011 | ✓ |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+31.7
| R O'Hara (i) | 2,021 | ✓ |
| D Borden | 1,048 |