House District Merrimack 4

Concord and Merrimack Valley · 2 seats · Canterbury, Loudon

Forecast

0.1 expected Democratic seats of 2

Held today: 0 D, 2 R
On the ballot: 1 Democrat, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
District party margin: R+7.8 (90% range R+18.7 to D+3.0)
Chance Democrats gain seats here: 14%
Chance Democrats lose seats here: 0%
Rating (seat share): Likely R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Michael Moffett (incumbent)	R	93%
Jose Cambrils (incumbent)	R	93%
Cody York	D	14%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-10.7
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+7.8

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Inputs

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+12.1	D+2.8	-14.9	0.4
2024 Governor	R+22.7	R+9.5	-13.1	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+2.7	D+9.3	-12.1	0.2
2022 Governor	R+25.4	R+15.8	-9.7	0.1
2020 President	R+6.9	D+7.4	-14.3	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+9.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -4.4, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+9.5

R Michael Moffett (i)	2,798	✓
R Jose E. Cambrils (i)	2,523	✓
D Ruth Heath	2,311
D Edward R. Friedrich	2,086

2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+5.9

R Moffett (i)	2,321	✓
R Cambrils (i)	1,972	✓
D Heath	1,924
D Scarponi	1,891