House District Hillsborough 45 (floterial)
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 1 seat · Brookline, Greenville, Hollis, Mason · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.4 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+0.1 (90% range R+11.0 to D+11.0)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 39%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Tilt R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Flanagan (incumbent) | R | 61% |
| Jerry Roche | D | 39% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -2.8 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+0.1 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+4.4 | D+2.8 | +1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+14.1 | R+9.5 | -4.6 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+6.8 | D+9.3 | -2.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+19.0 | R+15.8 | -3.2 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+7.8 | D+7.4 | +0.4 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+7.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean -7.4, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+7.5
| R Jack Flanagan | 5,953 | ✓ |
| D Karen Calabro (i) | 5,118 |
2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+0.1
| D Calabro | 4,476 | ✓ |
| R Skorupan | 4,466 |