House District Merrimack 5
Lakes Region · 2 seats · Andover, Danbury, Hill, Salisbury, Webster
Forecast
0.1 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+10.3 (90% range R+21.3 to D+0.6)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 13%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Louise Andrus (incumbent) | R | 93% |
| Deborah Aylward (incumbent) | R | 93% |
| Lorna Carlisle | D | 7% |
| Thomas Ware | D | 7% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -13.2 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+10.3 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+15.0 | D+2.8 | -17.8 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+21.8 | R+9.5 | -12.3 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+5.5 | D+9.3 | -14.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+25.7 | R+15.8 | -10.0 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+8.8 | D+7.4 | -16.2 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+13.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -8.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+13.4
| R Louise Andrus (i) | 2,878 | ✓ |
| R Deborah Aylward (i) | 2,471 | ✓ |
| D Lorna Carlisle | 2,082 | |
| D David A. Nesbitt | 2,006 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+5.1
| R Andrus (i) | 1,989 | ✓ |
| R Aylward | 1,778 | ✓ |
| D Wells | 1,741 | |
| D Carlisle | 1,659 |