House District Strafford 11

Forecast

Held today

3 D, 0 R

On the ballot

3 Democrats, 1 Republican for 3 seats

District party margin

D+29.2 (90% range D+18.3 to D+40.2)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Tom Southworth (incumbent)	D	100%
Erik Johnson (incumbent)	D	100%
Janet Wall (incumbent)	D	100%
Monique Meadows	R	0%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+26.3
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+29.2

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+29.4	D+2.8	+26.5	0.4
2024 Governor	D+15.6	R+9.5	+25.2	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+34.0	D+9.3	+24.7	0.2
2022 Governor	D+9.3	R+15.8	+25.0	0.1
2020 President	D+30.6	D+7.4	+23.3	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+27.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.7) → lean +28.6, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+27.6

D Janet G. Wall (i)	4,500	✓
D Erik Johnson	4,250	✓
D Thomas Southworth (i)	4,121	✓
R Joe Bazo	2,455
R Denis Grenier	2,439
R Bill Taylor	2,408

2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+23.6

D Wall (i)	3,793	✓
D Southworth (i)	3,513	✓
D Menear	3,339	✓
R Lehman	2,194