House District Rockingham 3
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 1 seat · Chester
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+18.6 (90% range R+29.7 to R+7.6)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 1%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Mary Ford (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| Charles Heuer | D | 1% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -21.4 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+18.5 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+18.8 | D+2.8 | -21.6 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+31.9 | R+9.5 | -22.3 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+14.1 | D+9.3 | -23.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+38.2 | R+15.8 | -22.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+14.2 | D+7.4 | -21.6 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+24.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -19.6, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+24.8
| R Mary J. Ford (i) | 2,107 | ✓ |
| D Jane W. Van Zandt | 1,271 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+18.4
| R Ford (i) | 1,591 | ✓ |
| D Van Zandt | 1,097 |