House District Strafford 2

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 3 R

On the ballot

1 Democrat, 3 Republicans for 3 seats

District party margin

R+13.3 (90% range R+24.2 to R+2.5)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

7%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Glenn Bailey (incumbent)	R	99%
Michael Granger (incumbent)	R	99%
Mark Racic	R	96%
Larry Brown	D	7%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-16.2
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+13.3

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+16.0	D+2.8	-18.8	0.4
2024 Governor	R+24.2	R+9.5	-14.7	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+10.3	D+9.3	-19.7	0.2
2022 Governor	R+34.3	R+15.8	-18.6	0.1
2020 President	R+12.1	D+7.4	-19.4	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+16.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -11.1, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+16.2

R Glenn Bailey (i)	2,935	✓
R Michael Granger (i)	2,835	✓
R Claudine R. Burnham (i)	2,780	✓
D Pamela J. Hubbard	2,154
D Larry Brown	2,041
D Marilyn J. Foster	1,969

2022 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+15.2

R Bailey (i)	2,116	✓
R Burnham	2,057	✓
R Granger	2,041	✓
D Hubbard	1,564
D Brown	1,524
D Foster	1,488