House District Strafford 10

Forecast

Held today

4 D, 0 R

On the ballot

4 Democrats, 0 Republicans for 4 seats — everyone on the ballot wins

District party margin

D+47.5 (90% range D+47.5 to D+47.5)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Wayne Burton (incumbent)	D	100%
Timothy Horrigan (incumbent)	D	100%
Loren Selig (incumbent)	D	100%
Siena Schaier	D	100%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+44.5
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+47.5

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+45.4	D+2.8	+42.6	0.4
2024 Governor	D+39.4	R+9.5	+49.0	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+64.3	D+9.3	+55.0	0.2
2022 Governor	D+42.6	R+15.8	+58.4	0.1
2020 President	D+55.4	D+7.4	+48.1	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+34.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.9) → lean +35.5, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 4, R 0 of 4 · party margin D+34.7

D Marjorie Smith (i)	5,135	✓
D Loren Selig (i)	5,076	✓
D Timothy Horrigan (i)	4,886	✓
D Wayne M. Burton	4,850	✓
R Jeffrey D. Berlin	2,416

2022 — D 4, R 0 of 4 · party margin D+60.7

D Selig	4,373	✓
D Kenney (i)	4,332	✓
D Smith (i)	4,321	✓
D Horrigan (i)	4,215	✓
R McDermott	1,101
R Olszewski	1,088
R Zetterstrom	1,032
R Sylvestre	993