House District Hillsborough 33
Monadnock · 2 seats · Peterborough, Sharon
Forecast
2.0 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 2 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 1 Republican for 2 seats
- District party margin
- D+36.6 (90% range D+25.7 to D+47.5)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jonah Wheeler (incumbent) | D | 100% |
| Peter Leishman (incumbent) | D | 100% |
| Kimberly Thomas | R | 0% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +33.7 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+36.6 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+37.0 | D+2.8 | +34.2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+26.5 | R+9.5 | +36.1 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+42.8 | D+9.3 | +33.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | D+25.6 | R+15.8 | +41.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+40.8 | D+7.4 | +33.5 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+30.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +30.7, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+30.6
| D Peter R. Leishman (i) | 2,932 | ✓ |
| D Jonah Orion Wheeler (i) | 2,920 | ✓ |
| R Kimberly Thomas | 1,555 |
2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+41.1
| D Wheeler | 2,538 | ✓ |
| D Leishman (i) | 2,433 | ✓ |
| R Maidment | 1,054 | |
| R Pilcher | 1,020 |