House District Grafton 1
North Country · 3 seats · Bath, Lisbon, Littleton, Lyman, Monroe, Sugar Hill
Forecast
0.7 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 0 D, 3 R
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats
- District party margin
- R+5.4 (90% range R+16.3 to D+5.5)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 45%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Barton (incumbent) | R | 83% |
| Calvin Beaulier (incumbent) | R | 83% |
| Andrew Dorsett | R | 68% |
| Timothy Egan | D | 22% |
| Linda Massimilla | D | 22% |
| Joseph Beaulieu | D | 22% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -8.3 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+5.4 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+6.2 | D+2.8 | -9.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+17.7 | R+9.5 | -8.2 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+1.9 | D+9.3 | -7.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+22.5 | R+15.8 | -6.7 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+1.3 | D+7.4 | -8.7 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+10.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.8) → lean -8.3, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+10.1
| R Darrell A. Louis | 3,238 | ✓ |
| R Joseph Barton | 3,039 | ✓ |
| R Calvin Beaulier | 2,911 | ✓ |
| D Linda Massimilla (i) | 2,755 | |
| D Timothy T. Egan | 2,551 | |
| D Vern Masters | 2,203 |
2022 — D 1, R 2 of 3 · party margin R+4.6
| R Simon (i) | 2,358 | ✓ |
| R Rochefort | 2,292 | ✓ |
| D Massimilla (i) | 2,171 | ✓ |
| R Beaulier | 2,058 | |
| D Applewhite | 1,984 | |
| D Egan (i) | 1,958 |